For the second straight year, it’s a happy recap for me, in fact, all 3 years that Calvin Borel has won, I’ve cashed tickets.
My Derby history to date:
2005: Picked Bandini, cashed a Pool 1 Future wager (25/1) on Giacomo (50/1 on track). If I had merely boxed my Pool 1 future wagers in the exacta, I’d have canned a career high $9K+ ticket.
2006: Picked AP Warrior, thought, Barbaro a must-use, hated Bluegrass Cat, caught nothing as a result. More on that in a moment.
2007: Made Street Sense my public pick, had exacta with Hard Spun, hated Curlin and missed tri & super as a result.
2008: Picked Colonel John, thought Big Brown was a toss based on post position. Oops.
2009: Picked Regal Ransom despite late addition of Join In The Dance, was 12 deep in the P4 going into the Derby leg, bought $20 with of insanity insurance win tickets on the 7 horses I didn’t have, including 50/1 Mine That Bird, and was rewarded with $1032 for my hedging.
2010: Picked Eskendereya, then Endorsement, thought about Ice Box and Mission Impazible, eventually ended up on Discreetly Mine. Structured tri tickets with them, Super Saver on top, wide exacta box, thinking it was a very evenly matched field. Probably would have played Paddy O’Prado on top in tris if some other wagers hadn’t depleted my bankroll.
Philosophy after the defections was simple: Don’t buy into the mad scramble for the lead scenario, which would have taken Super Saver and Discreetly Mine out of the equation; and use the horses who are flourishing at CD in every position. In my book, the five standouts were, in order of impression, Ice Box, Paddy O’Prado, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine and Super Saver. I mad Discreetly Mine the pick because I thought he had the best mud breeding and superlative distance breeding, too, plus I waited till the day before to pick, so I had seen that DM was the highest price, behind such obvious throwouts as Line of David, Homeboykris, Backtalk and Conveyance.
Every year, I’ve learned to make a point of hanging on every word that Mike Welsch of DRF says about the morning works. Welsch’s actual picks I’m not fond of, but his observations are spot on. Every winner in the time I’ve been wagering on the Derby has shown some affinity for the track in gallops, and all but Giacomo (who drilled marvelously at the old Santa Anita), had at least one really good work at Churchill. Barbaro, in the words of every observer I’ve ever heard speak, either before or after the race, had one of the best works ever seen leading up to the Derby. Street Sense also had a best in class workout, Big Brown was said to be thriving, and Mine That Bird, while not firing bullets, was said to be working consistently well and having made a good impression visually despite not being highly regarded.
In addition, Bluegrass Cat had strong works that I dismissed, thinking he had no shot to Winn the race. I learned from that the next year, and used Hard Spun underneath after his controversial blowout a few days before the race.
This year, I got to morning works for the first time ever, going on Wednesday of Derby Week, when Endorsement and Homeboykris worked. That day, galloping, I found myself looking for the name on the saddlecloth each time Ice Box, Super Saver and Paddy O’Prado went by. I thought Paddy was a horse with little shot to win, but he had to be used because he was so clearly thriving.
I’m not saying that traditional handicapping isn’t important, but the Derby, with its huge field and Churchill’s unique surface (no limestone base), the works are a big part of figuring out which horses like the surface, and which ones have survived the rigors of the prep season, and are most likely to give you a peak effort.
***
What I wished I’d done differently: the tote board should have warned me off the wide exacta box. While I thought chaos was possible, it wouldn’t have gotten anything like a signer. That money would have been best used to load up more on the combos featuring my main opinions, so that I could have gotten myself in a position to have a major, non-taxable score: Churchill offered the tri in 50 cent increments, allowing you to get in at 585 and change per unit, instead of the reportable $1170 it would have been a few years ago.
Well, that and using Atta Boy Roy, which would have gotten me 50 cents of a massive P4.
There’s always next year.
Rachel Alexandra is a clear single on her home track in the La Troienne. She’s training like her old self and should win with ease. For Zardana to beat her will take a second straight career top.
The Kentucky Juvenile, as usual, looks wide open, but I suggest a long look at the 2, Lou Brissie, who overtook a loose on the lead No More Yogi’s despite blowing the start and Robby Albarado (who opts for Nina Fever here) losing the whip. I like him to roll again late.
I’ll go 2 deep in the CD Turf Sprint, using Chamberlain Bridge (3/3@CD) and Silver Timber, also using Starfish Bay as a B and Formidable, the Allen Jerkens shipper, as a C.
The Alysheva could be tough. Macho Again (6-3-1-0 at CD) and Bullsbay (5-3-0-0 at CD) are leading contenders, as is the in-form Arson Squad. Chocolate Candy and Friesan Fire are OK in the B slot.
In the American Turf, a return to turf should suit Lost Aptitude nicely, but I recommend a wide spread including Make Music For Me, Doubles Partner, Saint Eligius, Strike The Tiger, Setsuko and Alfarabi.
Blind Luck may be many people’s single in multirace pools, but Tidal Pool, Champagne d’Oro, Evening JewelAmen Hallelujah, Quiet Temper and It’s Tea Time offer value for those who see Blind Luck as overbet off a 104 in a 4 horse field.
More thoughts to come as the Thorograph becomes available.
So I’ve had Apple’s newest toy now for a little over 48 hours- I bought it for presentations, but it’s quickly outstripping my expectations.
First off, what it isn’t. It’s not an oversized iPhone. It’s not quite a laptop, either. It is, really, its own thing.
Photos, as I expected, are gorgeous on this thing- it’s a stylish portfolio device and will let me make a huge impression on clients. Video also runs nicely, and unlike the iPhone, the speakers are gutsy enough to be heard. The Netflix movie viewer feels far more at home here than it ever did on my Macbook. One nice display touch: unlike iPhone, it has a switch to lock screen orientation when you need that.
The backbone of the thing is certainly going to be the App Store: iPhone created a gold rush for entrepreneurial developers, and it was small business driven. As a former tech recruiter, I’m sure this was especially good for older programmers, who don’t have to fight the usual age biases and can go straight to the marketplace.
IPad’s app store is still a work in progress. While all iPhone apps work on it, they run small, and there aren’t enough dedicated apps yet. I’ve heard a bit of whining about the cost of apps ($10 is about average), but the apps have more functionality and are still much cheaper than MacOS/PC apps. I expect in a year, there will be an explosion of new apps available for the device, especially since Apple has moved over 500,000 iPad’s in the first two weeks.
My favorite app I’ve found allows me to wirelessly connect with my Macbook and control that one’s screen giving me the use of the biggest omission in most consumers’ eyes, Flash. (Don’t expect flash anytime soon, it would kill the app store.). I enjoyed being able to use my Slingbox (albeit without sound) and DRF’s web based Formulator. I expect I probably could remotely print using the tablet, too.
Some apps are more useful away from their original platforms: Notes on the iPhone was a glorified grocery list. Here, I use it much more to take, well, notes. On my presentations, I usually bring paper copies of my contracts and pricelists, but now they’re on Pages, and I can fill in the blanks, email them to the client for signature instead of filling everything out by hand, and collect the deposit from Paypal’s Virtual Terminal or, when the accessory arrives, I can swipe the card using Square.
I hear that iPhone OS 4 will support multitasking, and when the iPad version comes out in the fall, that will add some depth to this.
I’m not an early adopter by nature - I only left Mac OS Tiger for Snow Leopard a couple of months ago, and bypassed Leopard entirely. I’m still on Photoshop CS3. But iPad has fit in very nicely as a lifestyle computer for me, quickly becoming my mobile computing device of choice, allowing me to leave Raid drives connected to the Macbook, and using that mainly for Lightroom, Photoshop, and storage. So far, it’s a winning start.
Well, we’ve finished the Grade 1 portion of the Kentucky Derby preps, and the field is more or less set at this point, with only two horses (Connemara and Drosselmeyer) who can still earn their way into the field in the Coolmore Lexington next week at Keeneland. Basically, if you’re out right now, you’ll need injury or illness from the Top 20 to get into the gate.
Right now, I’m looking at a first flight into the clubhouse turn of Super Saver, Line Of David, Conveyance, American Lion, Rule, Discreetly Mine and probably Sidney’s Candy. The second group should be Eskendereya, Noble’s Promise, Awesome Act, Endorsement, Paddy O’ Prado, Lookin At Lucky, Dublin, Dean’s Kitten and Mission Impazible, and the trailers should be Ice Box, maybe Interactif, and Stately Victor. (Should Connemara or Drosselmeyer get in, they’ll be in that last group.) The only clear deep closer is Ice Box, so Jose Lezcano should break out the tapes of Calvin Borel’s two Derby winning rides for ideas.
With so many need the lead types, the two that have to make decisions most about early placement are Sidney’s Candy and Eskendereya. The former has to consider dropping off the pace, given the fact he’s been setting 24 and change opening quarters, and the latter needs to figure out how best to stay out of traffic. In both cases, sitting somewhere around 6-7th early will be a victory.
***
From what I’ve seen so far, I’m down to 8 horses who I believe can win.
My A horse is still Eskendereya. There’s nothing any other horse has shown me that indicates they are on the same page as him at all. He’s got a three race foundation, including two 9f races, and he’s undefeated on real dirt.
My B horses are, in order of preference, Ice Box, Sidney’s Candy, Lookin At Lucky and Endorsement. Ice Box has 3 mile and an eighth races this year, is steadily improving, and has a trainer with a knack for explosive improvement at this time of year in his 3yos; there’s no reason to believe he won’t be passing tired horses late. Sidney’s Candy not only is winning, but is galloping out very strongly in his last two races, and if he can avoid getting sucked into the early pace, has a very good shot to at least hit the board, if not win. Lookin At Lucky needs to prove he can get a good trip— his trouble lines are worthy of a Muddy Waters box set, but he’s undoubtedly talented, and doesn’t give in easily. Endorsement has a big Beyer in his last at 9f, but beat a poor group, so he’s really more of a B/C horse for me right now.
My C horses are Stately Victor, Noble’s Promise, and Awesome Act. Stately Victor has been abysmal all season, not hitting the board in his 3yo season until today’s Blue Grass. If today was a true bill, however, he too will be passing a lot of horses late. Noble’s Promise probably can’t get the Derby distance seeing the way he hung today in Arkansas, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since he got shuffled back early. Awesome Act had a very good Gotham, has the breeding, but I can’t ignore that he’s been rank in 5 of his 8 races.
As always, the P4 is going to be my central bet, but I will probably put in tri tickets using Eskendereya on top with Ice Box, Sidney, Lucky and Stately Victor in both underneath spots, either wheeled to all or wheeled to all but a few of the speed horses.
***
Of course, as the field changes, and as horses start to work out, especially at Churchill, I’ll tweak my thoughts.
A horses:
Eskendereya: Fast and carries his speed over a distance, gallops out like he could beat them going around twice. Push button acceleration, in fact he hasn’t been hit with the stick in his last two races. Can sit behind horses no problem, tactical speed to work out a good trip. Reminds me of Barbaro, but without the high leg action that denoted that one’s preference for grass. Recorded a 106 in the Fountain of Youth, 109 yesterday in the Wood.
B horses:
Sidney’s Candy: Has benefitted from two slow paces in last, but he’s professional, breaks straight and true, and gallops out strong. Just doesn’t seem to be fast enough to catch the big guy, though. (Paired 95’s in last two before SA Derby, has a 99 in a sprint last year.)
Endorsement: Loved his Sunland Derby (101 Beyer), didn’t beat much, but cruised right up past Conveyance, was asked the question and disappeared, and no one caught Conveyance, let alone got close to him.
Lookin at Lucky: So he’s the 2yo champ. That and a bag of donuts can get the cops to come over. His Rebel (98 Beyer) was good, but not great, at least we know he can handle dirt. However, he hasn’t won beyond 8.5 furlongs, and he’s showing an alarming propensity towards finding trouble, and more often than not, that’s the horse, not the jockey. Will only have two preps coming into the Derby, and more worrisome, he looked stiff and sore in the SA Derby post parade— the back feet were not coming up to where the front feet left the ground.
Awesome Act: Like Lucky, he has a decent Beyer in his recent past (98 in the Gotham win), but like Lucky, he has a set of charts to make you sick. The word “rank” is all over them. Bred to go long, but not sure he gets along with Julien Leparoux.
Ice Box/Pleasant Prince: Florida Derby pair hit the line together with 99’s to show for it, but Ice Box gets the money and Pleasant Prince gets the bubble. Note that the fillies in the Bonnie Miss the same day went the same distance faster. Ice Box should improve with more ground, I think, but he didn’t switch leads down the stretch like he ought to— you hope Zito has him schooled well enough for this one. Did I mention that these two were well back of Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth?
C horses:
Noble’s Promise, Jackson Bend, Odysseus, American Lion
Eskendereya (9f): 109 (Derby par)
Warrior’s Reward (7f): 103
Eightyfiveinafifty (7f): 100
Goldsville (9f): 96
Top 5 Handicapping books discussion.
Don’t agree with most of the choices — many are far too dated, but a worthwhile set of books being discussed.
My choices:
1. Handicapping 101 (Brad Free): With Tom Ainslie’s books aging so badly, this is the best introduction to how to handicap available. The anecdotes are great for dealing with a lot of the quick-fix traps that new players fall into.
2. Expert Handicapping (Dave Litfin): Most players end up looking at the same horses in the end using the usual methods. Litfin’s angles (many taken from Ragozin, but in a more approachable format) help you find horses with a chance to win at a price. I’ve saved more P4 tickets through these methods than I care to count.
3. Betting Thoroughbreds in the 21st Century (Steve Davidowitz). One of the best things about Steve is that he doesn’t just add a new chapter or two, he rewrites the whole book, making it the most modern book available. Worth having for his discussion of the class structure of cheaper tracks alone. Decidedly an intermediate to expert level book, however, I would not start here.
4. Exotic Betting (Steven Crist). While Litfin and Davidowitz do approach wagering theory in their books, the best book available on the subject is Exotic Betting. The longer I’m in this game, the more I realize the difference between someone who can pick horses and someone who leaves with more money than he came in with is money management. (Barry Meadow’s out of print Money Secrets at the Racetrack is also excellent.)
5. Bet With the Best 2: Longshots (Various). No one makes money on a steady diet of 5/2 plays. If you’re going to survive long term in this game, you’ll have to have a host of methods to find a winner that leaves most of the other railbirds’ heads shaking. The chapter on cutbacks alone paid for my copy.
God bless you, Ohio University.
… Derby prep season to bring you the once proud Santa Anita Handicap, a shell of its former glory. Even before the trainwreck known as the synthetic era was inflicted upon the jewel of West Coast racing, the Big ‘Cap was in decline. It had become the West Coast prep for the Dubai World Cup, which is a horrible way to describe a million dollar race, but there you go.
This year’s running is the weakest I’ve seen since I started following the sport 6 seasons ago. It’s a collection of bad turfers and middle distance horses, and not much Grade 1 quality here. Misremembered is the ML favorite, Loup Breton is an intriguing turf invader, but the horse with the best history on synth at classic distances is unquestionably front-running Mast Track, who seems to be coming back into his 2008 form after a mediocre ‘09.
I’ll be thrilled to get double digit odds on him tomorrow (ML is 12/1), but he’s worth a win bet at anything above 6/1.
